The Mortgage Bankers Association recently published their 2Q25 Survey of Commercial / Multifamily Mortgage Banker Originations. The survey provides quarter-year updates on changes in the originations market. It details changes in the volume of loans originated and breaks the data down by property type and by investor type.
The headline reads that originations were 66% higher in the second quarter of 2025 compared to a year earlier and rose 48% from the first quarter of 2025. We focus on the year-over-year numbers as quarter-over-quarter can be influenced by seasonality. Importantly, the index stands at 301 compared to the historical average since 1Q 2002 of 201—or 50% higher. This suggests very solid footing given the macro backdrop and negative headlines.
Every lender type except CMBS increased QoQ and YoY. Investor driven (i.e, debt funds) had the greater QoQ increase at 107%, which is consistent with our view that they are increasingly taking market share (see our report titled Steady returns, strong foundations: The case for commercial real estate debt). YoY, commercial banks (+107%) and investor driven (+93%) had the largest increases.
Retail, industrial and healthcare lending saw increases both QoQ and YoY while multifamily and hotel declined QoQ and YoY. Office was mixed as it declined QoQ but rose YoY.
Origination volume change by sector